Lions’ upset over Saints completes 20,000-to-1 parlay, paying $100K

Parlay betting

She bet that both teams would score more than 45 points. The Patriots and  Seahawks were 14-point favorites and they both won by 17. Her card had the Cardinals and Bengals as four-point favorites, and they won by 23 and 10, respectively.

The final game of the parlay was on Monday night, where she had the Lions as a three-point underdog. Not only did Polia’s payout come through, but a 15-game parlay where bettors just have to pick the winners also hit. “So I thought it was strange when I looked at it [Tuesday] morning and saw that I won.”

Her dream, she says, is to make Vegas a pit stop on the way to owning a beach house in California.

The against-all-odds story gets better: Polia said this is only the second bet she has placed in her life.

The Chargers, as a two-point favorite, beat the Dolphins by 16. A progressive pot of $170,782 was split by 17 people.

Aside from the Giants as five-point underdogs, Polia’s card had the Vikings as a five-point favorite, and they won by 21. They beat the Saints, 35-27.

“I somehow drove back home to tell my boyfriend in person,” Polia said. “Of course, he didn’t believe me.”

Polia said she has loved sports her entire life — a Celtics logo tattoo on her hip is a testament to her love of Boston, which she left because she got sick of the winters.

Polia said, upon hearing the news, she fell to the floor of the law firm where she works in disbelief and, minutes later, said she was going out to lunch.

Thanks to one of the most improbable betting stories, that might happen sooner rather than later.

“On Sunday morning, my boyfriend and I were sitting on the couch talking about how spreads worked,” Polia said. Even though she was getting higher odds for picking against the spread, she said she spent time just picking who she thought was going to win the game instead.

Polia then called up William Hill and the person on the other line informed her that she was picking against the spread. She had the Falcons as a three-point underdog, and the Texans and Redskins as one-point underdogs; they won and covered. They scored 61.

Bogdanovich said the $5 15-team parlay card for $100,000 has hit before. “He was frustrated since I wasn’t getting it right away.”

“I remembered that I picked the  Giants and they lost,” Polia said.

The 26-year-old Polia, who had just moved to Las Vegas two months ago, got 20,000-to-1 odds on the parlay card on betting firm William Hill’s mobile site. The Chiefs, as an eight-point favorite, crushed the Ravens by 20.

The closest game she had was the Steelers, who were six-point favorites on the card, beating the Broncos by a touchdown after spotting Denver a 17-point lead. William Hill paid out a couple times in Delaware, where betting on the cards is permitted.. Polia had the Giants as a five-point underdog.

One of the biggest long shots in betting history will be cashed on Wednesday afternoon when Tayla Polia gets paid $100,005 for her $5, 15-leg NFL parlay that came through this week.

For William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich, this weekend wasn’t a good one, to say the least. She cashed in by being on the right side of the point spread in 14 games and correctly picking the over in the  Steelers/ Broncos game.

An hour later, Polia, with $20 in her account, risked $5 on the parlay. Polia also was required to pick the over or under on that game. The Packers won by 10 as a three-point favorite. The Panthers beat the Giants by three

Horse Racing Systems: 5 That Work

Parlay betting

To the extent that most handicappers use pedigree at all, it’s usually to identify horses that may improve when switched to the turf, or those who may be expected to win as first time starters. I’ve identified some of the most useful handicapping factors that have a proven history of doing much better than the track takeout and put them together with some simple rules that should make your trips to the racetrack more fun and profitable. Let me let you in on a little secret about these “magic formulas”. They will, however increase the chances of a profitable day at the races by ensuring that your wager dollars go where they have the best chance of success. Just don’t expect to quit your day job.

This causes the favorite to be under bet in the place pool, leading to a profit opportunity for us to take advantage of by betting the favorite to place. It must follow, therefore, that if we bet the best horse that has started at least twice, we stand an excellent chance of beating the takeout, particularly in races that have several first and second time starters.

Second, the very nature of the parimutuel system itself means that any profits to be made from following a particular set of rules will quickly be arbitraged away as the followers of that system drive down the odds of horses chosen by the system.

For instance, many speed figure handicappers reported making horse racing profits in the 60’s and 70’s simply by betting horses with the best last race speed figure. It should go without saying that you should actually like the favorite’s chances after evaluating the race with your own handicapping.

In fact, pedigree does not generally offer wager value with one curious exception: well bred horses do surprisingly well in maiden claiming races. My study suggests that’s not the case.

Horse Racing System #3 – In maiden claiming races, bet the horse with the best pedigree. In the first place, the parimutuel takeout in horse racing is large (over 15%) and the mutuel pools are relatively efficient, so that even systems with a strong basis in reality can’t overcome the size of the takeout.

For as long as humans have bet on horse racing there have been system sellers trying to con the gullible into parting with their hard earned money with the lure of easy profits to be made on the sport of kings. With the BRIS pp’s you can use the Sire Production Factor in concert with the pedigree rating. The inside post combined with early speed is a particularly potent combination, since the horse will not have to exert himself as much to gain his preferred position at the front of the pack.

First time starters return only about 60 cents on the dollar, and second time starters are only a little better, returning less than 70 cents on the dollar. Most people who love horse racing would be thrilled just to win a little more and lose a little less on their trips to the track.

The horse with the best last race speed figure (whether Beyer, BRIS, or Equibase) may not be the best horse in the race, but he’s probably not far off, so we can use that as a proxy for selection purposes.

Instead of blindly betting all horses breaking from the inside, you might use this to supplement your handicapping, paying particular attention to the inside horse, and betting it when you like the horse on other handicapping grounds. This system takes advantage of one of the few glaring inefficiencies in the parimutuel pools, namely that first and second time starters are badly over-bet.

Horse Racing System #2 – Bet horses that have an excuse for a poor performance in their last race. None of them work.

How do we identify the best pedigree, then? If you’re using the DRF past performances, use the stud fee as a proxy for quality, and the Tomlinson figure to judge suitability for the distance and surface. I was able to replicate this result in my own study of nearly 100,000 races conducted a decade later.

However, just because systems won’t make you rich doesn’t mean there’s no place for them at all in a horseplayer’s arsenal. This is another mistake that bettors make: in a race with a clear standout, many people give up on the win pool and bet their choice to place, thinking that they’ll get paid even if the favorite wins.. This is somewhat counter-intuitive since you’d expect that horses with good pedigrees that end up in the maiden claiming ranks probably can’t run at all. My own studies have shown a similar advantage for the inside post in routes.

Looking for a dead simple horse racing system that will allow you to quit your job and make a living betting the horses in just 10 minutes a day? Good luck with that!

Horse Racing System #1 – In maiden races, bet the horse with the best last race speed figure that has had at least two career starts. My computer studies of pedigree, based on nearly 100,000 races, suggest that using pedigree in that manner offers no advantage to the player.

Nunamaker reported that the inside post in dirt route races won at a 20% greater than expected rate, and lost only 10 cents on the dollar, much better than the track take. Because speed figures have gained in popularity over the years, anyone following that system now would have trouble coming up with gas money for the ride home from the track.

Horse Racing System #4 – Bet low-priced favorites to place. Thanks for reading, and see you in the winner’s circle.

Look for comment lines like “bled”, “lost rider”, “clipped heels”, “stumbled”, “steadied”, “between horses”, “rank”, and “jumped shadows” that suggest that a horse’s last race was not indicative of its true ability. One of the few anomalies turned up by Michael Nunamaker in his pioneering computer study “Modern Impact Values”, published in 1994, was that horses breaking from the inside post position in route races won more than their fair share of races, and were under-bet by the public. In most case the public seems to take a horse’s last running line at face value. This offers opportunity to more diligent players.

Horse Racing System #5 – Bet Horses breaking from the inside post in route races. Few bother to even look at the comment line for the race, let alone take the trouble to seek out and watch the replay of the race. The horse with the best combination of the two is the play.

None of these systems will make you rich, or even guarantee that you will make a profit. The inside post in turf routes actually showed a small profit, but this was based on a small sample size and cannot be relied upon. If the tote board suggests that the public is overlooking these mitigating circumstances, make your play.

In that spirit

How to Make Money Handicapping Horse Races and Betting on Horseracing

Parlay betting

The ones who depend upon luck or some other esoteric method are more like lottery players than handicappers, but the thing they all have in common is that all there money goes into the same pool and some from each group will be successful while many will not.

There are thousands of people trying to make a living from horse racing by handicapping the horse races and then betting on horse races.

Your chances of success are much greater if you educate yourself, prepare, practice, and work hard, but there are no guarantees. That edge is what separates gamblers from handicappers and is why, in the long run, handicappers win more, but in all fairness, they don’t just win it, they earn it.

. The only work they do is to walk into the club house and maybe read a simple list of horses and riders. If the success rate for handicappers is 5-10% then it is probably 1-2% for those depending upon luck.

For some people, horse racing handicapping is an intellectual sport and they prepare themselves and work hard at it. The thrill of winning is probably pretty close to the same for each group, though the handicappers also have the satisfaction of working hard and getting rewarded for it.

The way you make money handicapping and betting on horse races is in finding a good bet.

The big advantage that the handicapper has over the gambler is that he or she has an idea of each horse’s chances of winning and therefore, how much a horse has to pay to win in order to make money on such bets in the long run. There are many more people, perhaps millions around the world, trying to make money betting on horse races depending upon luck or some other system to be a winner.

On the other hand, the ones who depend upon luck invest nothing but money and very little time